Automated diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia from initial ER chest X-rays using deep learning.

BACKGROUND: Airspace disease as seen on chest X-rays is an important point in triage for patients initially presenting to the emergency department with suspected COVID-19 infection. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a previously trained interpretable deep learning algorithm for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia from chest X-rays obtained in the ED. METHODS: This retrospective study included 2456 (50% RT-PCR positive for COVID-19) adult patients who received both a chest X-ray and SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test from January 2020 to March of 2021 in the emergency department at a single U.S. INSTITUTION: A total of 2000 patients were included as an additional training cohort and 456 patients in the randomized internal holdout testing cohort for a previously trained Siemens AI-Radiology Companion deep learning convolutional neural network algorithm. Three cardiothoracic fellowship-trained radiologists systematically evaluated each chest X-ray and generated an airspace disease area-based severity score which was compared against the same score produced by artificial intelligence. The interobserver agreement, diagnostic accuracy, and predictive capability for inpatient outcomes were assessed. Principal statistical tests used in this study include both univariate and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall ICC was 0.820 (95% CI 0.790-0.840). The diagnostic AUC for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity was 0.890 (95% CI 0.861-0.920) for the neural network and 0.936 (95% CI 0.918-0.960) for radiologists. Airspace opacities score by AI alone predicted ICU admission (AUC = 0.870) and mortality (0.829) in all patients. Addition of age and BMI into a multivariate log model improved mortality prediction (AUC = 0.906). CONCLUSION: The deep learning algorithm provides an accurate and interpretable assessment of the disease burden in COVID-19 pneumonia on chest radiographs. The reported severity scores correlate with expert assessment and accurately predicts important clinical outcomes. The algorithm contributes additional prognostic information not currently incorporated into patient management.

An Interpretable Chest CT Deep Learning Algorithm for Quantification of COVID-19 Lung Disease and Prediction of Inpatient Morbidity and Mortality.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) airspace opacities is time consuming and challenging to quantify on computed tomography. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of a deep convolutional neural network (dCNN) to predict inpatient outcomes associated with COVID-19 pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A previously trained dCNN was tested on an external validation cohort of 241 patients who presented to the emergency department and received a chest computed tomography scan, 93 with COVID-19 and 168 without. Airspace opacity scoring systems were defined by the extent of airspace opacity in each lobe, totaled across the entire lungs. Expert and dCNN scores were concurrently evaluated for interobserver agreement, while both dCNN identified airspace opacity scoring and raw opacity values were used in the prediction of COVID-19 diagnosis and inpatient outcomes. RESULTS: Interobserver agreement for airspace opacity scoring was 0.892 (95% CI 0.834-0.930). Probability of each outcome behaved as a logistic function of the opacity scoring (25% intensive care unit admission at score of 13/25, 25% intubation at 17/25, and 25% mortality at 20/25). Length of hospitalization, intensive care unit stay, and intubation were associated with larger airspace opacity score (p = 0.032, 0.039, 0.036, respectively). CONCLUSION: The tested dCNN was highly predictive of inpatient outcomes, performs at a near expert level, and provides added value for clinicians in terms of prognostication and disease severity.

COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria.

This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to examine the implication of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security and labor market participation outcomes in Nigeria. To examine these relationships and implications, we exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures, along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest, using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that households exposed to higher COVID-19 case rates or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that the spread of the pandemic is associated with significant reductions in labor market participation. For instance, lockdown measures are associated with 6-15 percentage points increase in households' experience of food insecurity. Similarly, lockdown measures are associated with 12 percentage points reduction in the probability of participation in non-farm business activities. These lockdown measures have limited implications on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic.